A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
